Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

8E 0x8efa…59c9 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$83 (+30%) realized +$83 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate79%15W / 4L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day30.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)+19.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+32.4%	+19.8%	79%	68%	+17.6%
≤30d	19	+32.4%	+19.8%	79%	68%	+17.6%
≤90d	19	+32.4%	+19.8%	79%	68%	+17.6%
all	19	+32.4%	+19.8%	79%	68%	+17.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover30.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+19.8%	68%	+17.6%
10% ← realistic here	+8.3%	63%	+6.4%
15%	-2.1%	58%	-3.9%
20%	-11.7%	47%	-13.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

13% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +44% → late +22% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$83

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses15 / 4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day30.0

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$8	+152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$2	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$7	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 18	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$2	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$13	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$12	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 18	$5	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$1	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 18	$6	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$20	+76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$4	+80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 18	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 18	$26	−$2	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$38	+146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 18	$30	+$25	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$3	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$5	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$5	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$5	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	SELL Down	48¢	$11	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	SELL Up	83¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	SELL Up	83¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	SELL Down	87¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	SELL Down	44¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	SELL Down	82¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	SELL Down	60¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records