Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8ef7…1e3d sports 303 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$614 (+1%) realized +$624 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%119W / 179L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days−$398
14 days−$290
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,807
sports 45% +$1,993
crypto 1% +$149
politics 0% +$49
economics 0% −$13
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.6% -10.9% 45% 36% -29.0%
≤30d 19 +7.0% -3.2% 58% 53% -6.3%
≤90d 99 +11.2% +0.6% 53% 51% +2.8%
all 298 -14.2% -22.4% 40% 39% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 39% -8.8%
10% -29.8% 38% -17.6%
15% -36.6% 35% -25.5%
20% -42.8% 29% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -38% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$96 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$580
Realized+$624
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses119 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions5
Markets (closed)298 / 303
History coverage230d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $500 $490 −$10 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$40 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$47 +48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $99 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$322 +311%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $523 −$522 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $123 +$101 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $396 +$23 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $200 +$108 +54%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $16 −$16 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $284 +$235 +83%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 25 $197 +$86 +44%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 25 $191 −$187 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $256 +$134 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $155 +$100 +65%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 14 $60 +$53 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $101 +$115 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 13 $19 +$45 +240%
Will Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score May 12 $107 +$85 +79%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $100 +$76 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $253 +$144 +57%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? May 10 $15 +$38 +249%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 10 $15 +$40 +262%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $252 +$100 +40%
Will Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? May 09 $26 +$61 +237%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $186 +$97 +52%
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $176 +$109 +62%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $19 +$57 +291%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 07 $99 −$98 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $162 −$160 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $198 +$284 +143%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $300 −$296 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $432 −$428 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $253 +$201 +79%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $144 +$85 +59%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $301 +$144 +48%
Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 01 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $109 +$247 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $94 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $136 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $289 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down $85 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down $18 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $99 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $201 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $523 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $123 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $418 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $396 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 4d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 78¢ $308 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 61¢ $98 11d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 15d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $284 20d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $197 22d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $191 22d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $256 26d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $155 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.72 · official $579.72 (match) · 502 history records