Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8E 0x8ef7…2fed sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$176 (-2%) realized −$181 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%46W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$116
14 days+$118
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$481
world 17% +$90
politics 6% +$88
finance 2% +$52
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +22.5% +10.8% 80% 80% +18.8%
≤30d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 60% +5.4%
≤90d 72 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 53% -12.5%
all 72 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 53% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 53% -12.5%
10% -16.1% 40% -20.8%
15% -24.2% 25% -28.5%
20% -31.6% 17% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$77 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses46 / 26
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions7
Markets (closed)72 / 79
History coverage61d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 69¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? No 85¢ 88¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 61¢ 66¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 16 $61 +$15 +24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $251 +$91 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 13 $26 +$13 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $13 +$7 +52%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $40 −$10 -25%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Jun 07 $49 +$6 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $20 −$1 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 07 $20 +$14 +70%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $35 +$6 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $55 +$10 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $26 +$5 +20%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 25 $35 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round May 16 $18 −$17 -90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $101 +$62 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $277 −$277 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou May 01 $314 +$96 +31%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $202 −$157 -78%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $202 +$8 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $95 −$87 -91%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Apr 30 $34 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 30 $74 −$2 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 30 $85 −$5 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 30 $24 +$9 +36%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 30 $47 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $42 +$50 +120%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $168 +$76 +45%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $100 −$70 -70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $200 −$135 -68%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $240 +$66 +28%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $240 −$178 -74%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $131 −$87 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $200 +$61 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $240 −$26 -11%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Apr 29 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $431 −$431 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $240 +$45 +19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $200 +$44 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 29 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $42 +$10 +24%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $220 −$190 -86%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Apr 26 $61 −$57 -94%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $200 +$181 +90%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $100 +$70 +70%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $228 +$203 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $33 +$32 +96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $6 +$4 +73%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $200 +$110 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $35 10m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $35 11m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 72¢ $76 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $296 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 66¢ $3 38h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $20 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 90¢ $21 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 62¢ $12 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 61¢ $12 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 81¢ $7 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 81¢ $1 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 81¢ $5 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 81¢ $5 4d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 42¢ $2 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 43¢ $2 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 44¢ $4 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 45¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.53 · official $237.38 (match) · 622 history records