trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +40.7% | +27.3% | 100% | 100% | +19.2% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +40.7% | +27.3% | 100% | 100% | +19.2% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +19.2% | +7.9% | 75% | 75% | +12.9% |
| all | 17 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 65% | 59% | -4.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.5% | 59% | -4.2% |
| 10% | -23.6% | 47% | -13.4% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 35% | -21.7% |
| 20% | -37.8% | 24% | -29.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 62¢ | 64¢ | $100 | $104 | +$4 (+4%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 80¢ | 80¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 67¢ | 48¢ | $50 | $35 | −$15 (-29%) |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 61¢ | 62¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $33 | $33 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 12¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $1 | −$9 (-88%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $23 | +$13 | +55% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $51 | +$28 | +55% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $100 | +$12 | +12% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $50 | +$6 | +12% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $33 | +$23 | +70% |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Apr 21 | $24 | +$20 | +83% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 21 | $10 | −$3 | -33% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | Apr 21 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 22 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Dec 07 | $15 | +$4 | +24% |
| Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Saski Baskonia | Nov 26 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Panathinaikos vs. BC Dubai | Nov 26 | $10 | +$3 | +30% |
| UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | Nov 20 | $20 | +$7 | +37% |
| Paris Basketball vs. Valencia | Nov 13 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Nov 13 | $30 | +$12 | +41% |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Aug 18 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? | Jun 27 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |