Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8ef6…babc crypto 963 markets active 3h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27,552 (+2%) realized +$27,552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%958W / 5L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,162per market
Trades / day58.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$3,315
sports 24% −$3,271
other 5% +$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 724 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 963 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 1% -9.5%
all 963 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$889) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$893 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$27,552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses958 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)963 / 963
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$1,162
Trades / day58.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 963 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $307 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $12,987 +$13 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 16, 5PM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,644 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 16, 1PM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 16, 1PM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 16, 1PM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 16, 12PM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 16, 10AM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,750 on June 16, 9AM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 16, 8AM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 5AM ET? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,209 +$19 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 6PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,850 on June 15, 4PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,840 on June 15, 4PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,800 on June 15, 4PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,881 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,004 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above 1,860 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 15, 10AM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 15, 9AM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,760 on June 15, 8AM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 15, 7AM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 15, 3AM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 15, 1AM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,730 on June 15, 12AM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 14, 11PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 14, 7PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 14, 7PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $5,213 +$5 +0%
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,710 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $12,870 +$130 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 4PM ET? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 14, 4PM ET? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 14, 2PM ET? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 14, 2PM ET? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 14, 2PM ET? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $106 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $32 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2,944 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10,043 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 16, 5PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $101 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $215 10h
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 16, 1PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 16, 1PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 16, 1PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $646 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $649 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 16, 12PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.73 · official $80.73 (match) · 3500 history records