Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ef4…7132 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$12
crypto 3% −$11
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -34.7% -41.0% 50% 12% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -34.7% -41.0% 50% 12% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -34.7% -41.0% 50% 12% -9.6%
all 8 -34.7% -41.0% 50% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 12% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -46.6% 12% -18.2%
15% -51.8% 12% -26.1%
20% -56.5% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)8 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $211 +$20 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 19h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 85¢ $8 20h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 87¢ $7 20h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 87¢ $27 21h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 87¢ $9 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 24h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 25h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 26h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $16 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 27h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $16 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.73 · official $243.73 (match) · 39 history records