Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ef3…1782 crypto 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%139W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$11
politics 4% −$17
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 +6.0% -4.1% 78% 78% -5.1%
≤30d 157 +6.0% -4.1% 78% 78% -5.1%
≤90d 190 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 73% -10.4%
all 190 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 73% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 73% -10.4%
10% -17.4% 68% -19.0%
15% -25.4% 30% -26.8%
20% -32.7% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses139 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage64d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records