Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8ef2…3c33 other 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,862 (+14%) realized +$3,695 · open +$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%113W / 178L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$2,867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$374
7 days−$1,838
14 days−$1,594
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$3,280
sports 10% +$142
world 2% +$89
crypto 1% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -22.0% -29.4% 32% 30% -38.1%
≤30d 62 -0.6% -10.1% 45% 40% -11.3%
≤90d 243 +4.6% -5.4% 41% 38% +2.5%
all 291 +4.9% -5.1% 39% 36% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 36% +2.4%
10% -14.2% 36% -7.4%
15% -22.5% 34% -16.3%
20% -30.1% 31% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$39 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$2,867
Realized+$3,695
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses113 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions11
Markets (closed)291 / 310
History coverage97d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $500 $750 +$250 (+50%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $500 $547 +$47 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $500 $396 −$104 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $400 $383 −$17 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $51 +$39 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$7 -7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 −$23 -58%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$37 -37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$166 +82%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $514 −$30 -6%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$86 +85%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$1 -3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$84 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $279 −$57 -20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$454 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$80 +262%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $406 −$406 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Jun 14 $407 −$407 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $1,119 −$1,119 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $142 −$81 -57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$193 +95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $101 −$26 -26%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $202 +$100 +49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,341 +$38 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 −$10 -10%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $102 +$136 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $612 −$320 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 49¢ $95 43m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 24¢ $17 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $51 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $41 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $51 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $65 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $31 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $30 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $483 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $51 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $51 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $51 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $49 47h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $101 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Wil BUY 14¢ $10 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 20¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,867.29 · official $2,873.29 (match) · 779 history records