Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8eee…d015 weather 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+3%) realized +$54 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate78%18W / 5L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$136
14 days+$39
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.7% -13.8% 75% 62% -23.0%
≤30d 23 -4.1% -13.3% 78% 65% -7.3%
≤90d 23 -4.1% -13.3% 78% 65% -7.3%
all 23 -4.1% -13.3% 78% 65% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 65% -7.3%
10% -21.6% 22% -16.1%
15% -29.1% 9% -24.2%
20% -36.1% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$58 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses18 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage15d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $150 $165 +$15 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 19 $56 −$48 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $103 +$40 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $127 +$20 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $113 +$22 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $298 −$209 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $118 +$27 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $135 +$27 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $198 +$39 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $141 +$27 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $156 +$21 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $151 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $79 +$26 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $24 +$7 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $66 +$37 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 86¢ $82 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 25¢ $89 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.36 · official $165.36 (match) · 121 history records