Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8eed…f4b8 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$20
politics 30% −$13
sports 10% −$30
economics 3% −$2
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 133 -3.0% -12.2% 8% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage119d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $379 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $232 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $382 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $617 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $365 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $412 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 11 $232 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $191 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $364 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $240 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $371 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $413 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $254 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $195 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $228 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $219 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $190 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $215 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $229 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $202 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $21 22h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 22h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 41h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 44h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $41 11d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $230 23d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $235 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $235 25d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $185 25d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $185 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $232 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $232 26d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $233 26d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $233 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $174 28d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $174 28d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $228 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 437 history records