Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8eeb…cf31 crypto 893 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$27 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate68%607W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 56% -1.8%
≤30d 136 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 32% -10.3%
≤90d 183 -5.2% -14.3% 68% 28% -14.1%
all 892 -2.4% -11.7% 68% 18% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 18% -10.8%
10% -20.2% 7% -19.3%
15% -27.9% 5% -27.1%
20% -35.0% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses607 / 285
Open positions1
Markets (closed)892 / 893
History coverage161d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 892 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.01 (match) · 3133 history records