Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ee9…1362 sports 1222 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,663 (-2%) realized −$2,719 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%568W / 649L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$732est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$845
14 days+$426
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$3,516
other 4% −$167
crypto 2% +$414
world 1% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -35.7% -41.8% 38% 38% -40.8%
≤30d 163 -4.2% -13.4% 48% 48% -8.2%
≤90d 595 -19.9% -27.5% 40% 40% -26.2%
all 1217 -9.1% -17.8% 47% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 45% -10.6%
10% -25.7% 42% -19.1%
15% -32.8% 37% -26.9%
20% -39.4% 29% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$79 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized−$2,719
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses568 / 649
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$732
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1217 / 1222
History coverage154d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 58¢ 82¢ $150 $212 +$62 (+41%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $67 +$40 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $43 −$42 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $213 −$99 -46%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $122 −$122 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $101 +$58 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $78 −$14 -18%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $198 +$56 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $64 −$64 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $151 +$63 +42%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $56 +$32 +58%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $45 +$50 +109%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 26 $32 −$32 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $65 −$64 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $175 +$87 +50%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $43 −$42 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $115 −$114 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Giles Hussey vs Quentin Halys Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $18 +$24 +134%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $11 +$7 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $207 −$206 -100%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $198 −$198 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $126 +$58 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$97 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $133 −$133 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $166 +$129 +78%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $169 −$167 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 +$263 +244%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $250 +$150 +60%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $218 +$102 +47%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $166 +$94 +57%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $117 −$115 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $167 +$206 +123%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $89 +$46 +52%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $203 +$189 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $51 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $67 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $43 4h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Manuel Torres 53¢ $110 6h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $213 6h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 61¢ $59 8h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 61¢ $34 8h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 61¢ $30 8h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ $101 10h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 65¢ $62 10h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 60¢ $33 11h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 61¢ $100 11h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Jefferson Nascimento 34¢ $37 11h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 57¢ $65 12h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 40¢ $78 12h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 24¢ $24 14h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Brunno Ferreira 28¢ $42 15h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Charles Johnson 28¢ $42 17h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 23¢ $40 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 27h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 37¢ $32 29h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 63¢ $56 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $45 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 31h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Emma Navarro 32¢ $65 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 66¢ $175 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.98 · official $306.00 (match) · 3202 history records