Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8E 0x8ee8…8bc6 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,180 (-2%) realized −$1,180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%9W / 65L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$854per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$15
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$74
politics 34% −$27
sports 4% −$1,101
economics 2% −$2
world 2% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 -3.7% -12.9% 7% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 74 -1.7% -11.0% 12% 8% -11.2%
all 74 -1.7% -11.0% 12% 8% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 8% -11.2%
10% -19.6% 7% -19.7%
15% -27.3% 7% -27.5%
20% -34.4% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,039) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$509
Realized−$1,180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses9 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage84d
Avg bet$854
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $510 $509 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,814 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $821 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $726 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $720 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,468 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,701 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $918 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 04 $240 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 04 $384 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $357 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $286 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,305 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,425 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $28 +$25 +90%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $38 +$35 +93%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $8 $0 -4%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 10 $1,082 −$1,082 -100%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $875 −$1 -0%
Flyers vs. Penguins May 01 $17 +$22 +129%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,947 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $2,002 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,057 −$2 -0%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $774 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $216 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $217 4h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 4h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 8h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $486 9h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $486 12h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 31h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 34h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $510 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $768 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $770 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $819 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $821 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $725 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $726 7d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $719 7d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $720 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $665 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $666 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $739 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $739 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $751 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $753 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $705 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $706 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $805 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $806 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $715 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $716 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $715 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.31 · official $509.31 (match) · 207 history records