Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ee3…923f other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$149 (-56%) realized −$170 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%7W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$23
world 16% −$48
sports 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +185.8% +158.6% 43% 43% -3.2%
≤90d 60 -23.9% -31.1% 12% 12% -41.5%
all 60 -23.9% -31.1% 12% 12% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 12% -41.5%
10% -37.7% 12% -47.1%
15% -43.7% 12% -52.2%
20% -49.2% 12% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses7 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions500
Markets (closed)60 / 64
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Over 38¢ 36¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Rafael Cabral win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 3¢ 40¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1327%)
Will George Pickens play for Carolina Panthers in 2026-27? Yes 2¢ 39¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1659%)
Will Marcelo Silva win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 3¢ 38¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1304%)
Will Birk Risa win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 3¢ 37¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1285%)
Will Micael win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 32¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+1196%)
Will Eddie Segura win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 31¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+1150%)
Will Kevin Long win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 3¢ 30¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+998%)
Will Tristan Blackmon win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 28¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1036%)
Will Yevhen Cheberko win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 26¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+942%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Sean O'Malley next? Yes 2¢ 25¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+976%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Umar Nurmagomedov next? Yes 2¢ 24¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1031%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Cory Sandhagen next? Yes 0¢ 18¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+5900%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Alexandre Pantoja next? Yes 0¢ 15¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+4800%)
Will Andrew Privett win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 3¢ 17¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+507%)
Pacifica FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 17¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+515%)
Will Joel Waterman win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+560%)
Will Daniel Munie win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+552%)
Will David Brekalo win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+542%)
Will Miles Robinson win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+528%)
Will Ranko Veselinović win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+486%)
Will Maximiliano Falcón win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+466%)
Will Rodrigues win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+454%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 0 Cagliari Calcio? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: SSC Napoli 2 - 1 Udinese Calcio? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Parma Calcio 1913 1 - 1 US Sassuolo Calcio? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Getafe CF 1 - 0 CA Osasuna? May 23 $1 +$5 +441%
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol? May 23 $1 +$6 +549%
Exact Score: Real Betis Balompié 2 - 1 Levante UD? May 23 $1 +$7 +711%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Villarreal CF 1 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Villarreal CF 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Girona FC 1 - 0 Elche CF? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Girona FC 2 - 1 Elche CF? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: RC Celta de Vigo 0 - 2 Sevilla FC? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: RC Celta de Vigo 2 - 1 Sevilla FC? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 1 Athletic Club? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 0 Athletic Club? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: RCD Mallorca 2 - 0 Real Oviedo? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: RCD Mallorca 1 - 0 Real Oviedo? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Deportivo Alavés 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Deportivo Alavés 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Valencia CF 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Valencia CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Real Betis Balompié 3 - 1 Levante UD? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Burnley FC? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Burnley FC? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 Liverpool FC? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 2 Manchester City FC? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 2 Liverpool FC? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: CA Osasuna 1 - 1 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: CA Osasuna 1 - 0 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Levante UD 1 - 1 RCD Mallorca? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 1 - 0 RC Celta de Vigo? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Elche CF 1 - 1 Getafe CF? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Real Oviedo 1 - 1 Deportivo Alavés? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1 - 1 Villarreal CF? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Levante UD 2 - 1 RCD Mallorca? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1 - 0 Valencia CF? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2 - 1 Valencia CF? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 2 - 1 RC Celta de Vigo? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Betis Balompié? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 1 Girona FC? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 1 - 1 RC Celta de Vigo? May 17 $1 +$5 +509%
Exact Score: Elche CF 1 - 0 Getafe CF? May 17 $1 +$4 +413%
Exact Score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 1 - 1 1. FSV Mainz 05? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 1. FC Köln? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 1. FC Köln? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 1 - 2 1. FSV Mainz 05? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $19 8d
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 18d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 18d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22d
Will George Pickens play for Indianapolis Colts in 2026-27? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 24d
Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 0 Cagliari Calcio? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 28d
Exact Score: SSC Napoli 2 - 1 Udinese Calcio? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28d
Exact Score: SSC Napoli 2 - 1 Udinese Calcio? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28d
Exact Score: Parma Calcio 1913 1 - 1 US Sassuolo Calcio? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 28d
Exact Score: Getafe CF 1 - 0 CA Osasuna? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 28d
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 28d
Exact Score: Real Betis Balompié 2 - 1 Levante UD? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 30d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: Villarreal CF 1 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: Villarreal CF 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: Girona FC 1 - 0 Elche CF? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: Girona FC 2 - 1 Elche CF? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: RC Celta de Vigo 0 - 2 Sevilla FC? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: RC Celta de Vigo 2 - 1 Sevilla FC? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 1 Athletic Club? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 0 Athletic Club? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: RCD Mallorca 2 - 0 Real Oviedo? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 31d
Exact Score: RCD Mallorca 1 - 0 Real Oviedo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.35 · official $167.51 (match) · 3500 history records