Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8ee2…bea6
other · 117 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$114,143 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$117,708 · open +$1,650
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38,036
Realized−$117,708
Unrealized+$1,650
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses41 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions9
Markets (closed)107 / 117
History coverage1192d
Avg bet$6,170
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%
Chart Positions 9 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$185
14 days−$3,445
30 days−$3,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 66¢ 70¢ $14,356 $15,143 +$787 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $11,122 $11,458 +$336 (+3%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $7,652 $7,765 +$113 (+1%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 44¢ 55¢ $1,034 $1,291 +$257 (+25%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 71¢ 77¢ $713 $774 +$61 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $500 $654 +$154 (+31%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 83¢ 81¢ $652 $634 −$18 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $252 $203 −$48 (-19%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 72¢ $105 $114 +$9 (+8%)
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $522 +$185 +35%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 02 $1,021 +$31 +3%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,766 −$139 -8%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $546 −$26 -5%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $501 −$37 -7%
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? May 31 $5 −$3 -56%
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? May 31 $168 −$147 -88%
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 31 $11,902 −$4,364 -37%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $506 +$356 +70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? May 29 $1,962 +$96 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? May 29 $551 +$31 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? May 29 $9,445 +$573 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $871 +$228 +26%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 17 $1,389 +$201 +14%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 14 $59 −$57 -98%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 28 $649 −$649 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 15 $815 +$641 +79%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 15 $18,142 +$3,190 +18%
Will Chelsea vs. Benfica end in a draw? Apr 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-05? Apr 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Canton FDV above $6B one day after launch? Apr 15 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05? Apr 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Canton FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 15 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Benfica win on 2025-09-30? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-21? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Apr 15 $802 −$802 -100%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Apr 15 $7,183 +$5,739 +80%
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Apr 15 $3,145 −$3,145 -100%
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal p Apr 15 $3,237 −$3,237 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 15 $62,911 −$20,895 -33%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Apr 15 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Apr 15 $18,098 −$11,647 -64%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Mar 31 $79,307 −$61,135 -77%
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $21,024 −$6,543 -31%
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 24 $729 −$77 -11%
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 23 $314 −$11 -4%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 22 $5,520 −$1,093 -20%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 09 $1,393 −$810 -58%
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 09 $102 −$25 -25%
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 09 $711 −$69 -10%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Feb 22 $2,649 −$1,123 -42%
Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch? Feb 14 $10,596 +$2,252 +21%
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 13 $9,916 −$8,696 -88%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Feb 06 $25,610 −$9,063 -35%
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential Jan 23 $3,861 +$3,164 +82%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 09 $4,123 −$829 -20%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 31 $69,371 +$32,539 +47%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 31 $57,582 +$31,804 +55%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $51,242 −$47,935 -94%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 30 $1,368 −$1,167 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% −$120,448
tech 8% +$1,959
politics 7% −$10,572
crypto 3% +$12,627
sports 0% +$426
economics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL Yes 80¢ $2,619 53m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 61¢ $306 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 61¢ $332 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 61¢ $68 3h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 4h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 26¢ $138 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 44¢ $522 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 26¢ $287 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 65¢ $37 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $960 18h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 29h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 75¢ $0 45h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 63¢ $22 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 63¢ $598 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 63¢ $63 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 63¢ $63 2d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 63¢ $56 3d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 75¢ $135 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +35.4% +22.5% 100% 100% +22.5%
≤30d 15 -9.0% -17.7% 53% 27% -18.4%
≤90d 37 -37.8% -43.7% 30% 19% -47.4%
all 107 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 30% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 30% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 22% -32.8%
15% -37.7% 21% -39.3%
20% -43.8% 11% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,036.36 · official $38,171.36 (match) · 1718 history records