Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8edc…80d8 weather 729 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$157 (+1%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate76%506W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$15
sports 1% −$38
other 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 666 -0.1% -9.7% 76% 71% -9.7%
all 666 -0.1% -9.7% 76% 71% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 71% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 51% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 18% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,674
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses506 / 160
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions63
Markets (closed)666 / 729
History coverage71d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $31 $39 +$9 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $31 $36 +$6 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 28? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? No 78¢ 84¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 28? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? No 75¢ 76¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 28? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28? No 69¢ 69¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 28? Yes 40¢ 41¢ $30 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 28? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 29? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 19? May 26 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? May 26 $36 +$19 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? May 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 25? May 26 $26 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 25? May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 25? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 18? May 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $51 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 18? May 25 $47 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 18? May 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 18? May 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 18? May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 18? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 18? May 25 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 18? May 25 $51 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 18? May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 18? May 25 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 18? May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 18? May 25 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 18? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 19? May 25 $32 +$9 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 19? May 25 $51 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 19? May 25 $15 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 18? May 25 $19 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May May 25 $18 +$6 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 18? May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 19? May 25 $22 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 19? May 25 $21 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 19? May 25 $36 +$9 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 19? May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 19? May 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 19? May 25 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 19? May 25 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 19? May 25 $51 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 19? May 25 $51 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 18? May 25 $51 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 19? May 25 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 19? May 25 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 19? May 25 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 19? May 25 $51 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 18? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 19? May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 19? May 25 $51 +$14 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 19? May 25 $51 +$14 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 19? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 19? May 25 $50 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 19? May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 19? May 25 $50 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 19? May 25 $46 +$21 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $19 +$4 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $23 11m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 11m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 77¢ $30 41m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 41m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 74¢ $30 41m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 69¢ $31 41m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 29? BUY No 77¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 76¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? BUY No 70¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 78¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 42¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 28? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 84¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 28? BUY Yes 40¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 29? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 41¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 84¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 40¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 62¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 46¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,673.84 · official $1,673.15 (match) · 1650 history records