Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

8E 0x8edc…a847 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$100 (-84%) realized −$99 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 519d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+25.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+177.5%	+151.1%	100%	100%	+151.1%
≤30d	1	+177.5%	+151.1%	100%	100%	+151.1%
≤90d	1	+177.5%	+151.1%	100%	100%	+151.1%
all	2	+38.8%	+25.6%	50%	50%	-76.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.6%	50%	-76.4%
10%	+13.5%	50%	-78.7%
15%	+2.6%	50%	-80.7%
20%	-7.5%	50%	-82.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +178% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$99 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.18 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized−$99

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage519d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$10	+$18	+178%
Was Trump hacked?	Jan 18	$99	−$99	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	32¢	$28	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	4h
Was Trump hacked?	BUY Yes	17¢	$99	518d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.44 · official $9.44 (match) · 4 history records