Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8E 0x8edc…552b sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$526 (+17%) realized +$550 · open −$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$631per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$28est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+46.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+62.2%	+46.7%	100%	100%	+30.8%
≤30d	4	+62.2%	+46.7%	100%	100%	+30.8%
≤90d	4	+62.2%	+46.7%	100%	100%	+30.8%
all	4	+62.2%	+46.7%	100%	100%	+30.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+46.7%	100%	+30.8%
10% ← realistic here	+32.7%	100%	+18.3%
15%	+19.9%	50%	+6.9%
20%	+8.1%	50%	-3.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +62% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$229 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,065

Realized+$550

Unrealized−$24

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$28

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$631

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Over	69¢	68¢	$1,088	$1,065	−$24 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$873	+$227	+26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$701	+$172	+24%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$300	+$401	+134%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$183	+$118	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	69¢	$1,098	33m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,099	39m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	79¢	$873	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	99¢	$873	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	79¢	$701	1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$701	1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	BUY Over	42¢	$300	1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$300	1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	60¢	$183	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,064.55 · official $1,064.55 (match) · 9 history records