Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8edb…7d43 crypto 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-3%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%31W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$63
sports 4% +$15
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -9.1% -17.8% 51% 46% -11.9%
≤30d 61 -9.1% -17.8% 51% 46% -11.9%
≤90d 61 -9.1% -17.8% 51% 46% -11.9%
all 61 -9.1% -17.8% 51% 46% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 46% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 39% -20.3%
15% -32.8% 34% -28.0%
20% -39.4% 23% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses31 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)61 / 70
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 41¢ 48¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$28 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$39 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +79%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$14 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$35 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$18 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $46 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $37 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $38 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $90 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $35 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.83 · official $64.83 (match) · 146 history records