Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8eda…56fc crypto 909 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,735 (+6%) realized +$2,735 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate81%736W / 173L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$218
7 days+$509
14 days+$531
30 days+$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +10.8% +0.3% 91% 59% +0.9%
≤30d 243 +12.0% +1.3% 84% 56% -3.5%
≤90d 909 +9.0% -1.4% 81% 53% -5.6%
all 909 +9.0% -1.4% 81% 53% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 53% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 26% -14.6%
15% -19.5% 15% -22.9%
20% -27.4% 10% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$47 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,735
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses736 / 173
Open positions0
Markets (closed)909 / 909
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 909 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$16 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$16 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$22 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$23 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$5 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$8 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$49 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $70 +$12 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$33 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $77 +$53 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$14 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$20 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$33 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $99 +$16 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$29 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$37 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$11 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$32 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$26 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$10 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $59 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$15 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$8 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $86 +$13 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$16 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$31 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$8 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$16 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $17 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $0 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $17 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $19 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $13 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $24 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $23 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $13 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3422 history records