Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8ed8…7c2f
world · 68 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
−$574 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,006 · open +$432
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,867
Realized−$1,006
Unrealized+$432
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses32 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions11
Markets (closed)57 / 68
History coverage560d
Avg bet$711
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 11 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$455
30 days+$1,196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $2,174 $2,512 +$338 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1,315 $1,313 −$3 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,200 $1,196 −$4 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $820 $835 +$15 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 60¢ 72¢ $600 $715 +$115 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $511 $507 −$4 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $209 $207 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $205 $203 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 58¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $622 $0 −$622 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? No 18¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Autozone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? No 81¢ 0¢ $564 $0 −$564 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? No 52¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3,149 −$301 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,511 +$489 +32%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,623 +$417 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $1,615 +$579 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $810 −$128 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 23 $990 +$110 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 23 $1,020 +$180 +18%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Apr 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? Apr 16 $2 +$1 +71%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 16 $52 +$7 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 16 $450 −$54 -12%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Apr 16 $174 −$6 -3%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Apr 16 $736 −$56 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 16 $700 +$169 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $710 +$155 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $900 +$28 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 16 $1,068 −$14 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 16 $1,154 +$115 +10%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 16 $1,270 −$409 -32%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $5,118 −$4,494 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $697 +$29 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $1,044 −$316 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $260 +$45 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 14 $255 +$20 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 13 $446 −$17 -4%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $1,488 +$361 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 12 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 12 $62 −$58 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 12 $222 +$260 +117%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $550 −$20 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 11 $900 +$100 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 11 $120 −$118 -98%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $829 +$168 +20%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $446 +$54 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $141 +$159 +113%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $589 +$351 +60%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $140 +$801 +572%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 08 $719 +$281 +39%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $1,140 +$1,666 +146%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $430 +$68 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 07 $390 +$90 +23%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 07 $640 +$160 +25%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $622 −$622 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $1,289 −$168 -13%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $279 −$124 -44%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Jan 29 $564 −$564 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $113 +$42 +37%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% +$703
politics 12% −$1,016
other 11% +$453
crypto 5% +$9
finance 4% +$5
economics 2% −$746
sports 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $205 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $514 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,332 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $439 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $441 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $879 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $565 2h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $154 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,511 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $420 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $210 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $439 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 60¢ $405 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 60¢ $180 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $53 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $297 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $440 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,740 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $124 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $248 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1,335 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $797 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.7% -32.8% 33% 33% -8.8%
≤30d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 62% +0.4%
≤90d 44 +16.9% +5.7% 61% 52% -8.4%
all 57 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 49% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 49% -11.8%
10% -16.0% 30% -20.2%
15% -24.1% 18% -27.9%
20% -31.5% 11% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,866.61 · official $7,866.61 (match) · 506 history records