Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ed7…b0dd crypto 127 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-6%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%36W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$93
14 days−$125
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$128
world 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -37.3% -43.2% 26% 23% -32.9%
≤30d 127 -41.1% -46.7% 28% 22% -35.8%
≤90d 127 -41.1% -46.7% 28% 22% -35.8%
all 127 -41.1% -46.7% 28% 22% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.7% 22% -35.8%
10% ← realistic here -51.8% 16% -42.0%
15% -56.5% 11% -47.6%
20% -60.7% 10% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses36 / 91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 413 history records