Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ed5…44bf sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+1%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate90%26W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -2.9% -12.1% 90% 34% -7.4%
≤30d 29 -2.9% -12.1% 90% 34% -7.4%
≤90d 29 -2.9% -12.1% 90% 34% -7.4%
all 29 -2.9% -12.1% 90% 34% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 34% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 0% -16.2%
15% -28.2% 0% -24.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$148 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses26 / 3
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $251 +$19 +7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $626 +$35 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $300 +$12 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $150 +$6 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $250 +$16 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $751 +$36 +5%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $251 +$50 +20%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $251 +$27 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $250 +$16 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $125 +$5 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $251 +$18 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $251 +$27 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $500 +$8 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $125 +$15 +12%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $251 +$27 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $317 +$15 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $222 +$28 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $235 +$15 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $250 +$16 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $200 +$15 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $251 +$46 +18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $477 +$56 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,002 +$86 +9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $250 +$6 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $251 +$30 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $251 +$27 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $125 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $125 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $125 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $125 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $125 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $250 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $500 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $125 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $125 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $250 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $150 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $150 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 96¢ $150 5h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 83¢ $251 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 90¢ $251 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $125 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $250 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $250 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 95¢ $125 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $71 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $125 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $125 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $251 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $251 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 90¢ $251 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $250 32h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $125 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $214 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $9 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $250 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records