Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8ed5…7c3a crypto 1723 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,543 (-2%) realized −$2,540 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate79%1347W / 365L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day88.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$74
14 days−$365
30 days−$3,185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,800
weather 1% −$187
other 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -29.1% -35.9% 24% 24% -20.4%
≤30d 1712 -3.9% -13.1% 79% 35% -11.3%
≤90d 1712 -3.9% -13.1% 79% 35% -11.3%
all 1712 -3.9% -13.1% 79% 35% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 35% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 21% -19.8%
15% -29.0% 12% -27.6%
20% -36.0% 8% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$50 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$2,540
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1347 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1712 / 1723
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day88.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 28¢ 96¢ $9 $32 +$23 (+243%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Yes 35¢ 48¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 35¢ 41¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 53¢ 6¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 289 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$8 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$41 +446%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $9 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$16 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$21 +212%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 +$21 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $9 +$55 +609%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $80 +$170 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $29 −$28 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 82¢ $10 2m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 79¢ $9 18m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 46¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 70¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.07 · official $91.94 (match) · 3500 history records