Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ecc…d960 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
other 36% +$1
finance 8% −$1
politics 8% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.3% -7.4% 67% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.2%
all 35 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage257d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $68 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $54 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $28 +$1 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $18 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $16 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 13 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 12 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 57¢ $69 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $68 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $21 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $33 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $30 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $24 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 33h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $41 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $2 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $18 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $61 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $61 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $52 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records