Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8E 0x8eca…73ae crypto 574 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,080 (+2%) realized +$1,080 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate77%443W / 131L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,954
7 days+$360
14 days+$251
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$121
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 +0.6% -9.0% 77% 63% -8.6%
≤30d 570 -0.7% -10.2% 77% 60% -9.3%
≤90d 574 -0.6% -10.1% 77% 60% -9.3%
all 574 -0.6% -10.1% 77% 60% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 60% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 40% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 23% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$85 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,080
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses443 / 131
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)574 / 574
History coverage49d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 574 Trades
no open positions (130 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$32 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1045 history records