trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -5.0% | -14.0% | 0% | 0% | -14.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 67% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 67% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 22 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 32% | 5% | -11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.5% | 5% | -11.8% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 5% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 5% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 5% | -35.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $44 | $44 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | No | 69¢ | 68¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 23 | $30 | −$1 | -5% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $49 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $18 | $0 | +2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 01 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 20 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 19 | $113 | −$21 | -19% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 18 | $14 | −$2 | -16% |
| Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 | Mar 18 | $125 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 17 | $131 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Mar 17 | $115 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? | Mar 17 | $117 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 15 | $115 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 15 | $1 | +$1 | +83% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | -11% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jul 02 | $26 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 13 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after | Jun 12 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jun 11 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 08 | $25 | $0 | -0% |