Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ec9…f819 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$123 (-28%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -30.0% -36.7% 17% 17% -34.5%
≤30d 7 -40.0% -45.7% 14% 14% -39.6%
≤90d 8 -45.5% -50.7% 12% 12% -42.2%
all 8 -45.5% -50.7% 12% 12% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.7% 12% -42.2%
10% -55.4% 12% -47.8%
15% -59.7% 12% -52.8%
20% -63.6% 12% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$29 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage31d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $36 −$21 -59%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $82 +$43 +52%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $114 −$29 -25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $104 −$86 -83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 −$22 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records