Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ec8…0f6e other 54 markets active 2d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-7%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$55
world 37% −$17
politics 19% −$20
tech 2% −$2
crypto 1% −$3
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.9% -18.5% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 28 -13.4% -21.6% 0% 0% -17.3%
≤90d 54 -11.6% -20.0% 0% 0% -17.0%
all 54 -11.6% -20.0% 0% 0% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 0% -17.0%
10% -27.6% 0% -25.0%
15% -34.6% 0% -32.2%
20% -41.0% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage48d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 -6%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 02 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 02 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election May 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 26 $18 −$10 -57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 26 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 25 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? May 25 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In May 24 $2 $0 -9%
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I May 23 $79 −$7 -9%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 22 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in c May 22 $9 −$3 -37%
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during events in Rockland County? May 22 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events in Rockland County? May 22 $0 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during events in Rockland County? May 22 $4 −$1 -37%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during events in Rockland County May 22 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Tax" 7+ times during events in Rockland County? May 22 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 20 $28 −$13 -46%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 20 $16 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? May 19 $19 $0 -1%
Will Maryville University win NACL 2026 Spring? May 16 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? May 11 $6 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 11 $189 −$2 -1%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 06 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 May 06 $2 $0 -20%
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States May 05 $29 $0 -2%
Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027? May 05 $4 $0 -10%
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? May 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027? May 05 $4 $0 -3%
Will Susan Rice be arrested before 2027? May 05 $36 −$1 -3%
Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau? May 04 $7 $0 -4%
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midt May 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte May 04 $3 $0 -4%
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m May 04 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 03 $29 −$13 -46%
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 03 $28 −$11 -42%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 03 $26 $0 -1%
Mark Ruffalo as Hulk? May 03 $18 −$1 -5%
Benedict Wong as Wong? May 03 $27 $0 -2%
Will Drake feature Pimmie on ICEMAN? May 03 $10 $0 -3%
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? May 03 $15 $0 -1%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 02 $38 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $39 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $28 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $78 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 85¢ $8 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $8 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $3 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $4 8d
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 14d
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 14d
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 14d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 84¢ $17 14d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $17 14d
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $18 14d
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 83¢ $28 14d
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $18 14d
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $28 14d
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 85¢ $12 14d
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $6 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records