Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ec7…f2ee sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$374 (-47%) realized −$369 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$404
weather 6% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.4% -46.1% 43% 43% -64.1%
≤30d 7 -40.4% -46.1% 43% 43% -64.1%
≤90d 7 -40.4% -46.1% 43% 43% -64.1%
all 7 -40.4% -46.1% 43% 43% -64.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 43% -64.1%
10% -51.2% 29% -67.5%
15% -55.9% 14% -70.7%
20% -60.3% 14% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$107 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$369
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 48¢ $139 $133 −$6 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $245 −$227 -93%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $187 −$184 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $159 +$29 +18%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $24 +$16 +66%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.18 · official $157.18 (match) · 14 history records