Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8ec6…b459 crypto 1463 markets active 3h ago coverage 153d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 153d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$426 (-6%) realized −$422 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%638W / 799L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$462
weather 21% −$26
other 0% −$3
sports 0% −$9
politics 0% +$20
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +27.8% +15.6% 46% 42% -9.8%
≤30d 246 -0.0% -9.5% 39% 36% -13.5%
≤90d 1286 -7.9% -16.6% 45% 44% -17.2%
all 1437 -8.2% -16.9% 44% 42% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 42% -16.8%
10% -24.9% 39% -24.7%
15% -32.1% 33% -32.0%
20% -38.8% 19% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$422
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses638 / 799
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1437 / 1463
History coverage153d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $29 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ 32¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $58 −$52 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 −$23 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$13 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$15 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$9 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$14 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$7 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$11 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$14 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$4 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$8 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$7 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -49%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$10 +736%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 8¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 8¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 11¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 16¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 29¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 37¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 45¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.13 · official $49.13 (match) · 3404 history records