Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

8E 0x8ec4…79c3 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$15 (-4%) realized +$46 · open −$61

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$90per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+43.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+58.6%	+43.5%	100%	100%	+43.5%
≤30d	1	+58.6%	+43.5%	100%	100%	+43.5%
≤90d	1	+58.6%	+43.5%	100%	100%	+43.5%
all	1	+58.6%	+43.5%	100%	100%	+43.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+43.5%	100%	+43.5%
10%	+29.7%	100%	+29.7%
15%	+17.2%	100%	+17.2%
20%	+5.7%	100%	+5.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +59% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$59 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage

Net worth$196

Realized+$46

Unrealized−$61

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage76d

Avg bet$90

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	64¢	81¢	$57	$72	+$15 (+26%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	6¢	1¢	$100	$25	−$75 (-75%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Jun 24	$100	+$59	+59%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	64¢	$58	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL No	100¢	$159	1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY No	63¢	$100	69d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY Yes	6¢	$100	76d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.25 · official $197.41 (match) · 5 history records