Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ebf…48e6 sports 15 markets active 7d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-22%) realized −$39 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$9
sports 24% −$21
world 12% +$1
other 7% −$14
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-58.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤30d 4 -18.0% -25.8% 75% 50% -18.1%
≤90d 12 -53.7% -58.1% 33% 25% -46.8%
all 12 -53.7% -58.1% 33% 25% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.1% 25% -46.8%
10% -62.2% 8% -51.9%
15% -65.8% 8% -56.5%
20% -69.2% 8% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage102d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 75¢ 75¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 40¢ 33¢ $55 $45 −$10 (-17%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 05 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $5 +$1 +11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +4%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? May 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 11 $8 +$10 +127%
Rangers vs. Stars Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Kings Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Nick Hardt 88¢ $10 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs BUY PCIFIC 9¢ $7 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 90¢ $5 19d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $20 26d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 41d
Red Wings vs. Panthers BUY Red Wings 58¢ $8 62d
Rangers vs. Stars BUY Rangers 37¢ $5 66d
Blues vs. Ducks BUY Blues 44¢ $8 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29? BUY Up 50¢ $5 80d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $11 83d
Nets vs. Kings BUY Nets 35¢ $10 86d
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 56¢ $19 96d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 40¢ $55 98d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 75¢ $46 100d
Pelicans vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 31¢ $3 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.02 · official $111.03 (match) · 126 history records