Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8eba…6c18 weather 935 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$400 (-4%) realized −$394 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate84%646W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$33
14 days−$38
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$369
other 4% −$1
world 3% +$6
sports 2% −$42
crypto 1% −$4
economics 0% −$8
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 381 -1.3% -10.7% 92% 8% -11.0%
≤30d 571 -5.1% -14.2% 84% 8% -11.0%
≤90d 766 -3.8% -12.9% 84% 8% -13.4%
all 766 -3.8% -12.9% 84% 8% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 8% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 2% -21.7%
15% -28.9% 1% -29.3%
20% -35.8% 1% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$835
Realized−$394
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses646 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions169
Markets (closed)766 / 935
History coverage66d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 169 History 766 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? No 83¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 94°F or higher on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 87¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $835.46 · official $831.19 (match) · 2413 history records