Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8eb3…2020 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-15%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.4% -26.2% 50% 50% -22.9%
≤30d 8 -18.4% -26.2% 50% 50% -22.9%
≤90d 8 -18.4% -26.2% 50% 50% -22.9%
all 8 -18.4% -26.2% 50% 50% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 50% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 50% -30.2%
15% -39.7% 50% -37.0%
20% -45.6% 25% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records