Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8eb3…367c other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%21W / 1L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$11
crypto 43% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 22 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
all 22 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses21 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage71d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $302 $302 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $301 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $311 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $308 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $308 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $307 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $307 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $306 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 17? May 18 $306 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17? May 17 $306 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $305 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $295 +$10 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 13 $294 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $145 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $147 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $141 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $290 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $304 −$13 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $304 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $302 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $299 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $302 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $301 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $311 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $308 14d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $309 18d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $308 19d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $308 37d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $307 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $307 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $306 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $306 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $306 42d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $305 44d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $295 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $294 47d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $147 49d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $145 49d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $141 52d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $150 52d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $290 59d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $291 63d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $304 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $304 66d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $302 67d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $299 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.95 · official $301.95 (match) · 45 history records