Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8eb1…6540 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -14.6% -22.7% 56% 44% -18.5%
≤30d 32 -14.6% -22.7% 56% 44% -18.5%
≤90d 32 -14.6% -22.7% 56% 44% -18.5%
all 32 -14.6% -22.7% 56% 44% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 44% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 28% -26.3%
15% -36.9% 28% -33.4%
20% -43.1% 19% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$5 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$11 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$1 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$20 -49%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$2 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$3 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$8 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$9 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$5 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$14 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$13 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$20 -48%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$9 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$10 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +69%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$3 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +63%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$3 -23%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -42%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +95%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +120%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $10 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $14 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $9 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $12 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $29 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $16 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $23 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records