Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8eab…a56d
other · 130 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,693 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,956 · open +$2,415
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,078
Realized−$6,956
Unrealized+$2,415
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses57 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions36
Markets (closed)116 / 130
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3,504
Trades / day124.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 36 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,281
7 days−$2,271
14 days−$7,154
30 days−$6,956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 48¢ $192 $2,410 +$2,218 (+1153%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $192 $1,275 +$1,083 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $192 $1,075 +$883 (+459%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $192 $975 +$783 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $192 $625 +$433 (+225%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $192 $475 +$283 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $191 $450 +$259 (+136%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $192 $270 +$78 (+40%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $192 $118 −$75 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $192 $118 −$75 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $187 $61 −$126 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $138 $51 −$87 (-63%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $155 $34 −$120 (-78%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $182 $28 −$154 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $25 −$167 (-87%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $12 −$180 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $200 $10 −$189 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $8 −$185 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $203 $5 −$198 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $177 $5 −$171 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $2 −$190 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $2 −$190 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $80,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$11 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3,259 −$49 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $697 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $22 −$9 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$15 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $659 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1,474 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $287 +$53 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $15 −$7 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $33 +$8 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3,222 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$13 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $19 −$4 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $31 −$25 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $13 −$8 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$9 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $11,341 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5,983 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$3 -18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $28 −$13 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $37 −$22 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4,906 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $26,043 +$19 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,723 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $1,121 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $177 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $116 −$35 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $167 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3,195 +$8,089 +253%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$42 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$7 +1070%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $80 −$33 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $42 −$9 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $73 −$37 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $22,190 +$32 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 80% −$4,349
politics 20% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 5m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 5m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -21.7% -29.2% 40% 9% -10.8%
≤30d 116 +46.6% +32.7% 49% 21% -10.9%
≤90d 116 +46.6% +32.7% 49% 21% -10.9%
all 116 +46.6% +32.7% 49% 21% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover124.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.7% 21% -10.9%
10% +20.0% 20% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here +8.4% 16% -27.2%
20% -2.3% 16% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,078.33 · official $8,078.33 (match) · 3500 history records