Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ea9…5b98 sports 632 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (173 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$885 (+4%) realized +$885 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%372W / 598L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day173.3pace
Fees−$199est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$509
other 26% +$949
crypto 5% +$70
tech 0% −$19
world 0% −$3
finance 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (173 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 403 -91.5% -92.3% 3% 3% -82.3%
≤30d 970 -32.4% -38.8% 38% 35% -25.5%
≤90d 970 -32.4% -38.8% 38% 35% -25.5%
all 970 -32.4% -38.8% 38% 35% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.8% 35% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -44.7% 32% -32.6%
15% -50.0% 23% -39.2%
20% -54.9% 17% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$885
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses372 / 598
Est. fees paid−$199
Open positions0
Markets (closed)970 / 632
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day173.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 970 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Sagan Tosu vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-09? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 20 $27 −$29 -108%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-08? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -57%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Granada CF win on 2026-05-01? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-09? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL Challeng Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Little Rock: Enzo Aguiard vs Andre Ilagan Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-05-23? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Centurion: Semen Pankin vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-05-29? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs MVK Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Clermont Foot 63 vs. En Avant Guingamp end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 20 $13 −$12 -92%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $28 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $27 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $17 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $28 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $37 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $52 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records