Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ea7…2fae world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$1
other 18% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.7% 17% 17% -9.9%
≤30d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 8% -9.3%
all 27 -3.0% -12.3% 48% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 4% -9.5%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage451d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $74 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $58 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $5 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $37 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $2 $0 -15%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $5 $0 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
Starmer out before July? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $14 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $3 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $8 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $5 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 44h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $42 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.54 · official $14.54 (match) · 94 history records