Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ea5…7646 sports 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$14 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate83%124W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$20
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$12
other 32% +$9
politics 11% +$2
world 7% +$2
tech 4% +$7
crypto 2% −$34
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -0.9% -10.3% 82% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 149 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 12% -9.9%
≤90d 149 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 12% -9.9%
all 149 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 12% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 12% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses124 / 25
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)149 / 155
History coverage14d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? No 89¢ 89¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 95¢ 87¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 36¢ $18 $7 −$11 (-61%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? No 94¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $17 +$2 +11%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Raufoss IL win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$1 +7%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $37 +$2 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $22 +$2 +9%
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Igor Thiago be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $21 +$3 +12%
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $17 +$2 +10%
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $17 +$2 +11%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $26 +$2 +7%
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $32 +$2 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $32 +$2 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $27 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $20 −$4 -18%
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $57 +$7 +12%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $38 +$3 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $57 −$14 -24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $145 +$2 +2%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $49 +$4 +7%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$4 +8%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $44 +$8 +18%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $37 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? SELL No 94¢ $16 1m
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 89¢ $5 44m
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 89¢ $14 45m
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $20 45m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 1h
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? SELL No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? BUY No 89¢ $5 1h
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? BUY No 89¢ $8 1h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? SELL No 99¢ $18 2h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY No 92¢ $5 3h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 95¢ $11 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $19 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 88¢ $4 4h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY No 92¢ $7 4h
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 98¢ $10 4h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY No 92¢ $5 4h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 88¢ $4 4h
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? BUY No 94¢ $6 4h
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $17 4h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 88¢ $4 5h
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $8 5h
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $13 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $19 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 6h
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 88¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.91 · official $75.91 (match) · 429 history records