Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8ea2…e563 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
other 25% $0
politics 20% $0
sports 14% +$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 35 +2.1% -7.6% 43% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 3% -9.2%
10% -16.4% 3% -17.9%
15% -24.5% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.67 per $1 lost it wins $4.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage269d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $22 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $27 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $94 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $26 +$1 +4%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Nov 14 $2 $0 -11%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $3 $0 +9%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 24 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $28 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $31 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $22 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $15 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $2 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $5 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $3 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 24h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $12 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records