Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ea1…c38e other 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,005 (-9%) realized −$4,232 · open −$1,773
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%54W / 91L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$863
7 days+$216
14 days−$9,564
30 days−$3,423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$2,838
other 19% −$2,494
sports 13% +$267
world 3% −$585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.8% -20.2% 40% 40% -3.9%
≤30d 114 -25.5% -32.6% 29% 29% -20.7%
≤90d 145 -16.8% -24.7% 37% 34% -15.1%
all 145 -16.8% -24.7% 37% 34% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 34% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 31% -23.2%
15% -38.5% 28% -30.6%
20% -44.5% 22% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$211 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$2,857
Realized−$4,232
Unrealized−$1,773
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses54 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions27
Markets (closed)145 / 156
History coverage80d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $350 $824 +$474 (+135%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $345 $750 +$405 (+117%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 96¢ $253 $439 +$186 (+74%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $350 $348 −$2 (-0%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 63¢ 46¢ $336 $245 −$91 (-27%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,356 $20 −$1,336 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $314 $8 −$305 (-97%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1,007 $3 −$1,004 (-100%)
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $213 +$287 +134%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 29 $650 +$576 +89%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $164 +$160 +98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 25 $265 +$130 +49%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $168 −$165 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $239 −$234 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $248 +$141 +57%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 −$13 -12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $240 −$235 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 −$15 -7%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $152 −$150 -99%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 23 $315 +$72 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $231 −$225 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $203 −$14 -7%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $203 +$157 +78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $163 +$78 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $136 +$144 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $155 −$152 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $127 −$126 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$105 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $152 +$35 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $155 −$153 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $64 +$305 +473%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $700 −$684 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $399 +$181 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $423 −$418 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $267 −$261 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 −$35 -52%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Jun 16 $557 −$239 -43%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $2 22m
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $150 23m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $359 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $351 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $256 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 42¢ $16 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 42¢ $18 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 43¢ $87 3h
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,227 13h
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 53¢ $631 2d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $168 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $239 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $248 6d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 70¢ $61 6d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $90 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $240 6d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $188 6d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $102 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $152 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 78¢ $387 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $231 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 48¢ $189 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,857.21 · official $2,848.07 (match) · 1775 history records