Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ea0…a97c world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$1
other 11% −$1
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
culture 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.8% -10.2% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 18 -0.8% -10.2% 22% 0% -9.5%
all 33 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage467d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $41 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $17 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $42 +$3 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $57 +$3 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $42 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $45 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $6 $0 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $83 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $8 $0 +5%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $27 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $17 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $9 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $24 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $34 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $47 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $47 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $32 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $14 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $21 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $2 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $43 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.52 · official $41.52 (match) · 104 history records