Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e9f…5a5c other 262 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 249L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$39
sports 24% −$22
economics 8% −$7
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$5
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage140d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $308 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $354 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $794 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $292 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,436 −$2 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $517 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $335 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $852 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $389 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $585 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $431 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $580 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $245 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $210 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $176 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $142 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $147 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $702 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $330 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $233 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $62 3h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 4h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 6h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $62 7h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $62 9h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $62 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $62 14h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 16h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 17h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 25h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 26h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 29h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 30h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 31h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 32h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 39h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $8 46h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $35 2d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1396 history records