Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e9f…56b9 crypto 764 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$132 (-1%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%575W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day60.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,134
7 days−$328
14 days−$366
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$272
other 6% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 -0.5% -10.0% 81% 31% -11.3%
≤30d 764 +2.4% -7.3% 75% 47% -11.2%
≤90d 764 +2.4% -7.3% 75% 47% -11.2%
all 764 +2.4% -7.3% 75% 47% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 47% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 34% -19.7%
15% -24.3% 14% -27.5%
20% -31.7% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses575 / 189
Open positions0
Markets (closed)764 / 764
History coverage15d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 764 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $338 −$16 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $197 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$36 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $183 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $209 +$366 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $404 −$199 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $405 −$188 -46%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $212 −$212 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $205 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $133 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $197 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $211 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $183 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $209 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $205 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $95 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $204 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1654 history records