Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e9f…5b6f
other · 313 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$439 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$428 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$428
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses168 / 142
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)310 / 313
History coverage217d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 3 History 310 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 67¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 55¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ 16¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-55%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Suns vs. Knicks Knicks 67¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-10? No 45¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Doosan Bears 47¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 82¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Nuggets 72¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-04? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-11? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-22? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-04? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +94%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $6 +$3 +41%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$12 +165%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 11 $15 +$14 +89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $11 −$11 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles May 22 $13 −$13 -98%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. LG Twins May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 22 $20 +$14 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 19 $12 +$9 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $22 +$1 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 18 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$3 +29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 +$5 +114%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $14 +$5 +37%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 +$7 +54%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Doosan Bears May 17 $9 +$9 +95%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $26 +$18 +68%
KBO: LG Twins vs. SSG Landers May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 17 $10 +$5 +53%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 16 $11 +$7 +62%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$185
sports 46% −$247
world 1% −$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $8 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $10 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $9 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $6 14h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $10 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 36h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants SELL Doosan Bears 100¢ $29 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 41h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants BUY Doosan Bears 52¢ $15 41h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $13 21d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 21d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Doosan Bears 47¢ $13 21d
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 58¢ $10 21d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 23d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 23d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $10 24d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $10 24d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 57¢ $5 24d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $10 24d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 51¢ $10 24d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 24d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $10 25d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $7 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $5 25d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $23 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +33.1% +20.4% 75% 75% +17.2%
≤30d 50 -0.3% -9.8% 58% 56% -6.4%
≤90d 102 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 47% -16.4%
all 310 -7.3% -16.1% 54% 53% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 53% -19.0%
10% -24.1% 45% -26.8%
15% -31.5% 35% -33.9%
20% -38.2% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.17 · official $17.17 (match) · 505 history records