Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8E 0x8e9f…51a8 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
politics 23% +$1
other 14% −$1
economics 7% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 14 +4.1% -5.9% 36% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +4.1% -5.9% 36% 7% -9.3%
all 40 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage324d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +61%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 11? Aug 11 $12 $0 +0%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 11 $4 $0 -8%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 04 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $62 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $2 $0 +4%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $63 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $44 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $45 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $44 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $18 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $24 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $30 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $22 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $47 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $13 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.45 · official $44.86 · 126 history records