Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8E 0x8e9c…f277 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$117 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.3% -3.9% 100% 14% -7.1%
≤30d 7 +6.3% -3.9% 100% 14% -7.1%
≤90d 7 +6.3% -3.9% 100% 14% -7.1%
all 7 +6.3% -3.9% 100% 14% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 14% -7.1%
10% -13.1% 14% -16.0%
15% -21.5% 0% -24.1%
20% -29.2% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $309 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 24 history records