Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e9a…82a2
crypto · 180 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$79 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$79 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses100 / 79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 179 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$94
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$80
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -14.8% -22.9% 62% 43% -22.3%
≤30d 179 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 42% -20.3%
≤90d 179 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 42% -20.3%
all 179 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 42% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 42% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 27% -27.9%
15% -29.5% 18% -34.9%
20% -36.4% 8% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.91 · official $1.91 (match) · 485 history records